Flash in the Pan

I ran a little system in 2002 that had a high S/R. I would like to take this up agin and post up the mighty beasts to see whether it was just a 'flash in the pan'. Not usually many selections, so posts will be 2 or 3 a week I expect.

Selections should be forecast at least 4/5 or bigger and will always be favourite. Where another horse starts favourite, I will keep separate records (on here), as my previous analysis indicated this did make a difference.

I will run a ficticious £1,000 bank and keep a S/R log just for fun .

Friday's selections:

Chel 3.30 - Comply or Die
Wolv 3.40 - Blythe Spirit

Lots of luck BlackCat. I hope the fate of short priced favourites improves, yesterday was better but there certainly have been some odd results recently!!

Thanks Kingsley.

Comply or Die wins (evens) and Blythe Spirit was 2nd but too short to bet (4/7). I am only interested in logging horses that I would (or did) actually back. There would be many more selections that I don’t put up, or even check out if they are forecast too low.

In my previous analysis, I discovered that putting in shorter priced selections down to 4/6, whilst giving more bets, did not increase the profitability of the system a jot, although the SR remained about the same.

I intend to run this thread for a couple of years, so plenty of time to fail yet!

What I should have stated was that each qualifying selection will have 1pt (£10) bet on it.



Bank: £1,010
SR Summary: Bets 1, Wins 1, SR 100%, Longest losing run 0

BlackCat

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My flash in the pan for Saturday is:

1.35 Chel - Vodka Bleu

(Now, I have recalled that I had a rule about chases and that involved a price stipulation. I can not remember what it was tho'! I will call it evens for now. If bigger, it would rule out yesterdays winner. I'll have to check back if I can find it that is).

Vodka wins 11/8 (just)

Bank: £1,023.75
SR Summary: Bets 2, Wins 2, SR 100%, Longest losing run 0

BlackCat

Good start, BC!

Thanks Seanrua.

Monday: 3.10 Folk - Inca Trail

I put this up on my Incremental Staking thread too, and so nearly had a cover bet on Latimers Place - the only danger that I could see in the race. Never mind. They can't all win (as much as I'd like them to!)

Bank: £1,013.75
SR Summary: Bets 3, Wins 2, SR 66%, Longest losing run 1

Well, Tuesday's selection falls into the system. But all I will say is that I am glad the £10 stake is ficticious...I am that confident with it!

3.40 Tow - The Bar Maid

The Bar Maid pulls me a nice 6/4 surprise

Bank: £1,028.75
SR Summary: Bets 4, Wins 3, SR 75%, Longest losing run 1

Looking good, Blackcat!

I don't know how you do it at this sharp end of the market! Well done!

Today's fav that really let me down was Blue Torpedo, and d'you know what? I just felt it was going to lose as I rang in the bet.

Not to worry, River Biscuit helped a bit.

I hate that feeling Seanrua. And doesn't it always seem to be that the feeling of doom was justified.

Thursdays "flash" is:

1.30 Win - Icharus Dream

(Obvious danger in Golden Crusader. Trainer has a low SR. But the horse is in a race it can win nevertheless)

a disappointing 3rd

Bank: £1,018.75
SR Summary: Bets 5, Wins 3, SR 60%, Longest losing run 1

Pink Harbour was also fully in the system today... but the jockey was not. No bet here on that basis, but as a point of interest, (and to make me feel better), it did win!

Weather dependent. It has been snow and sleet here all evening. I will find out what it is like at Windsor in the morning. If bad, then I will not count this one. (If a goer, it will be posted on RSUK as a bet - i must stick to pre-race definite posting)

3.45 Windsor - Atahuela

There are obvious dangers to this one anyway. But it does fall in the system, and the trainer/jockey SR is around 20%

Mmmmmmm... an interesting dilemma today.

With a "system", if it is 'in' (as The Bar Maid above), I suppose we should monitor it as part of the results. However, this means that if common sense tells you not to bet due to weather, or dangers in the field that you would prefer, the system says you've still got to bet it.

Todays selection Atahuela is fully 'in'. I must log it as a system bet. But I would not bet in this race. There are 2 or 3 dangers that I can readily see, not least of which is the 7/1 Frontier.

(Edited out the stuff about logging system selection & system bets separately. Stupid idea).

This message has been edited. Last edited by: BlackCat,

Selection Summary – Rest of 2004
12/11/04 3.30 Chel - Comply or Die (Chase, 7R) 1/1 - 1st
13/11/04 1.35 Chel - Vodka Bleu (Chase 5R) 11/8 - 1st
15/11/04 3.10 Folk - Inca Trail (Chase, 7R) 6/5 – 3rd
16/11/04 3.40 Tow - The Bar Maid (Hurdle, 11R) 6/4 – 1st
18/11/04 1.30 Win - Icharus Dream (Hurdle, 9R) 15/8 – 3rd
19/11/04 3.45 Windsor – Atahuela (Hurdle, 7R) – 7/4 – 1st
24/11/04 12.25 Weth - Union Deux (Hurdle, 13R) -5/4 - 3rd
24/11/04 1.35 Chep - Fast Mix (Hurdle, 12R) - 2/1 – 1st
24/11/04 3.10 Weth - Strong Resolve (Chase, 6R) - 15/8 - 1st
26/11/04 2.10 Bangor - Senna Da Silva (Hurdle, 12R) - 5/2 - 3rd
30/11/04 3.20 NewtAbb - Pure Platinum (Chase, 6R) - 5/4 - PU
05/12/04 2.10 Punch - Justified (Hurdle, 8R) - 5/4 - 1st
05/12/04 2.10 Punch - Beef or Salmon (Chase, 6R) 4/5 - 3rd
07/12/04 3.10 Font - Brave Spirit (Chase, 9R) 4/5 - 1st
08/12/04 12.40 Leicester - Almah (Hurdle, 11R) 4/7 (BF 1.84) - 1st
08/12/04 1.40 Leicster - Fast Mix (Hurdle, 5R) 4/7 (BF 1.89) - 3rd
11/12/04 1.30 Chel - Monets Garden (Hurdle, 6R) 8/11 (BF 1.83) - Lost
14/12/04 11.50 Southwell - Broughton Knows (AW 1.3, 8R) 7/4 - Lost
15/12/04 3.10 Bangor - Royal Hector (Hurdles, 14R) 5/6 - 1st
16/12/04 1.10 Exeter - Ile de Paris (Chase, 9R) 15/8 - 2nd
17/12/04 2.40 Windsor - You're Special (Chase, 6R) 5/4 - Lost
17/12/04 3.10 Windsor - Marcel (Hurdle, 4R) 10/11 - 1st
26/12/04 1.00 Kempton - Ollie Magern (Chase, 9R) 13/8 - 1st

System Summary
Bank: £1,044.88
SR Summary: Bets 23, Wins 12, SR 52%, Longest losing run 3

This message has been edited. Last edited by: BlackCat,

Waiting for a bus

Nothing for a few days, then three come along at once!

12.25 Weth - Union Deux BET
3.10 Weth - Strong Resolve BET
1.35 Chep - Fast Mix (No Bet)

Fast Mix falls into the system, but is not fav in the live market, so no bet. If Dramatic Quest was to be a N/R, then a bet.

Live market changed. Now:

1.35 Chep - Fast Mix (a BET)

12.25 Weth - Union Deux 5/4 - 3rd
3.10 Weth - Strong Resolve 15/8 - 1st
1.35 Chep - Fast Mix 2/1 – 1st

Summaries now in the Summary post above

Good results BC. Do you know why you stopped it years ago?